Hierarchical Bayesian approach for population dynamics modelling of fish complexes without species-specific data   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Jiao  Yan; Hayes  Christopher; Cortes  Enric 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2009,66(2):367-377

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DEPENDENCE BETWEEN FUSION TEMPERATURES AND CHEMICAL COMPONENTS OF A CERTAIN TYPE OF COAL USING CLASSICAL,NON-PARAMETRIC AND BOOTSTRAP TECHNIQUES     

W.GONZLEZ-MANTEIGA  J.M.PRADA-SNCHEZ  M.G.FIESTRAS-JANEIRO  I.GARCA-JURADO 《地理学报(英文版)》1990,(6)

A statistical study of the dependence between various critical fusion temperatures of a certain kind ofcoal and its chemical components is carried out.As well as using classical dependence techniques(multiple,stepwise and PLS regression,principal components,canonical correlation,etc.)together withthe corresponding inference on the parameters of interest,non-parametric regression and bootstrapinference are also performed.  相似文献   

Bayesian analysis of De distributions in optical dating: Towards a robust method for dealing with outliers     

《Quaternary Geochronology》2022

In optical dating, especially single-grain dating, various patterns of distributions in equivalent dose (D_e) are usually observed and analysed using different statistical models. None of these methods, however, is designed to deal with outliers that do not form part of the population of grains associated with the event of interest (the ‘target population’), despite outliers being commonly present in single-grain D_e distributions. In this paper, we present a Bayesian method for detecting D_e outliers and making allowance for them when estimating the D_e value of the target population. We test this so-called Bayesian outlier model (BOM) using data sets obtained for individual grains of quartz from sediments deposited in a variety of settings, and in simulations. We find that the BOM is suitable for single-grain D_e distributions containing outliers that, for a variety of reasons, do not form part of the target population. For example, D_e outliers may be associated with grains that have undesirable luminescence properties (e.g., thermal instability, high rates of anomalous fading) or with contaminant grains incorporated into a sample when collected in the field or prepared in the laboratory. Grains that have much larger or smaller D_e values than the target population, due to factors such as insufficient bleaching, beta-dose heterogeneity or post-depositional disturbance, may also be identified as outliers using the BOM, enabling these values to be weighted appropriately for final D_e and age determination.  相似文献   

基于BMA多模型组合的疏勒河径流预测研究     

周婷  温小虎  冯起  尹振良  杨林山 《冰川冻土》2022,44(5):1606-1619

准确可靠的径流预测对于水资源的科学管理与规划具有重要意义,特别是在水资源紧缺的干旱半干旱地区,径流预测对流域内水资源高效利用与水利工程经济运行具有重要现实意义。针对径流预测通常采用单一方法进行建模与预测,难以利用各预测模型优势的问题,本文利用极限学习机（ELM）模型、支持向量机（SVM）模型、多元自适应回归样条（MARS）等机器学习方法建立了疏勒河上游未来1~7日的径流预测模型。在此基础上,运用贝叶斯模型平均（BMA）方法对ELM、SVM、MARS模型的预测结果进行组合,构建了径流组合预测模型,以获取更可靠的预测结果,并采用蒙特卡洛抽样方法获取BMA的95%置信区间,对预测结果进行了不确定性分析。结果表明：ELM、SVM、MARS模型以及BMA组合模型均适用于干旱半干旱地区的中长期日径流预测;BMA的预测精度较单一模型更高,能够提供更准确的预测值;BMA的95%置信区间对实测值覆盖率高,同时能够提供较好的确定性预测和概率预测结果。表明BMA在资料有限的条件下,表现出较单一模型更高的预测性能,可以成为干旱半干旱地区中长期日径流预测的有效方法。  相似文献   

AMT勘查贵州铁(稀土)多金属矿效果分析     

张西君  杨胜发  张海  李家斌 《物探化探计算技术》2015,(1)

贵州铁(稀土)多金属矿资源储量丰厚,但是因其赋存条件的特殊性,勘查具有一定的挑战性,在此开展铁(稀土)多金属矿的物探方法试验研究,对今后勘查工作具有重要的指导意义。这里简要介绍了AMT(音频大地电磁法)工作方法以及贵州威宁秋木构工区的地质和地球物理特征,重点讨论了AMT在秋木构工区铁(稀土)多金属矿勘查中的应用效果,通过对电阻率断面图的综合推断解释,划分出了二叠系宣威组与峨嵋山玄武岩组地层界面,圈出了含矿有利部位。经钻孔验证,取得了良好的找矿效果。  相似文献   

A three-level framework for multi-risk assessment     

Zhongqiang Liu  Farrokh Nadim  Alexander Garcia-Aristizabal  Arnaud Mignan  Kevin Fleming  Byron Quan Luna 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2015,9(2):59-74

The effective management of the risks posed by natural and man-made hazards requires all relevant threats and their interactions to be considered. This paper proposes a three-level framework for multi-risk assessment that accounts for possible hazard and risk interactions. The first level is a flow chart that guides the user in deciding whether a multi-hazard and risk approach is required. The second level is a semi-quantitative approach to explore if a more detailed, quantitative assessment is needed. The third level is a detailed quantitative multi-risk analysis based on Bayesian networks. Examples that demonstrate the application of the method are presented.  相似文献   

A Bayesian network approach for predicting seismic liquefaction based on interpretive structural modeling     

Ji-Lei Hu  Xiao-Wei Tang 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2015,9(3):200-217

The Bayesian network (BN) is a type of graphical network based on probabilistic inference that has been gradually applied to assessment of seismic liquefaction potential. However, how to construct a robust BN remains underexplored in this field. This paper aims to present an efficient hybrid approach combining domain knowledge and data to construct a BN that facilitates the integration of multiple factors and the quantification of uncertainties within a network model to assess seismic liquefaction. Initially, only using given domain knowledge, a naive network model can be constructed using interpretive structural modeling. Thereafter, some effective information about the naive model is provided to construct a robust model using structural learning of BN from historic data. Finally, the returning predictive results and the predictive results are compared to other methods including non-probabilistic and probabilistic models for seismic liquefaction using the metrics of the overall accuracy, the area under the curve of receiver operating characteristic, prediction, recall and F₁ score. The methodology proposed in this paper achieved better performance, and we discussed the power and value of the proposed approach at the end of this paper, which suggest that BN is a good alternative tool for seismic liquefaction prediction.  相似文献   

Improvement of X-Band Polarization Radar Melting Layer Recognition by the Bayesian Method and ITS Impact on Hydrometeor Classification     

Jianli MA  Zhiqun HU  Meilin YANG  Siteng LI 《大气科学进展》2020,37(1):105-116

Using melting layer(ML)and non-melting layer(NML)data observed with the X-band dual linear polarization Doppler weather radar(X-POL)in Shunyi,Beijing,the reflectivity(ZH),differential reflectivity(ZDR),and correlation coefficient(CC)in the ML and NML are obtained in several stable precipitation processes.The prior probability density distributions(PDDs)of the ZH,ZDR and CC are calculated first,and then the probabilities of ZH,ZDR and CC at each radar gate are determined(PBB in the ML and PNB in the NML)by the Bayesian method.When PBB>PNB the gate belongs to the ML,and when PBBPNB the gate belongs to the ML,and when PBB相似文献   

基于TIGGE多模式集合的24小时气温BMA 概率预报   总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6  

刘建国  谢正辉  赵琳娜  贾炳浩 《大气科学》2013,37(1):43-53

利用TIGGE(THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble)单中心集合预报系统(ECMWF、United Kingdom Meteorological Office、China Meteorological Administration和NCEP)以及由此所构成的多中心模式超级集合预报系统24小时地面日均气温预报,结合淮河流域地面观测率定贝叶斯模型平均(Bayesian model averaging,BMA)参数,从而建立地面日均气温BMA概率预报模型.由此针对淮河流域进行地面日均气温BMA概率预报及其检验与评估,结果表明BMA模型比原始集合预报效果好;单中心的BMA概率预报都有较好的预报效果,其中ECMWF最好.多中心模式超级集合比单中心BMA概率预报效果更好,采用可替换原则比普通的多中心模式超级集合BMA模型计算量小,且在上述BMA集合预报系统中效果最好.它与原始集合预报相比其平均绝对误差减少近7%,其连续等级概率评分提高近10%.基于采用可替换原则的多中心模式超级集合BMA概率预报,针对研究区域提出了极端高温预警方案,这对防范高温天气有着重要意义.  相似文献   

ALCGEIS知识获取与推理机设计     

贾泽露  刘耀林 《地球信息科学学报》2006,8(1):67-72

运用专家系统的知识获取和推理机设计原理与方法,探讨了ALCGEIS系统的基本结构、知识分级、知识获取过程和实现程序,推理机的基本原理和控制策略及其程序实现的算法,以及推理知识的搜索策略;论述了 AIEGEIS推理规则的设计方法及其推理算法。  相似文献